WARNING: Turns out the News Guy is not the only Vermonter receiving  regular if not incessant emails claiming to be from the Electronic Federal Tax Payment System screaming: “Your Federal Tax Payment…has been rejected.”

You probably know this, but just in case, the Internal Revenue Service does not communicate via emails. These emails are attempted scams. What the IRS would like you to do is forward them to: phishing@irs.gov.

Or just ignore them.

CLARIFICATION: It turns out that the fellow who read through the August 15 Rutland Herald on the News Guy’s behalf didn’t read it closely enough. He was, kindly,  on his own time and on request from here, trying to find evidence for Brian Dubie’s claim that an article in the paper on that date supported Dubie’ss contention that Peter Shumlin has proposed releasing some prisoners before their terms expire. The article, Dubie said, reported that Shumlin “wanted to empty the prisons of 780 nonviolent offenders.”

As reported Wednesday (scroll down) the volunteer reader from Rutland could find neither hide nor hair of any such statement, though he did find a profile of Shumlin in that day’s paper.

Actually, way down in the third from the last paragraph of that profile, there was such a hide and/or hair.

At least so says – and there’s no reason to doubt her – Dubie spokesperson Kate Duffy, who emails that the story contains the following: “Emptying the prisons of non-violent offenders, he says, will cover the nearly $50 million price tag attached to his early childhood education plan.”

So Dubie was not making something out of nothing.

Only something out of little. The words “Emptying the prisons of non-violent offenders” were not Shumlin’s, but the reporter’s, There remains not a scintilla of evidence that Shumlin ever proposed releasing a single convict before his or her sentence has run its course, and Dubie’s continued efforts to argue that his opponent has made that proposal is pitiful at best.

(Though perhaps here it should be noted that Shumlin’s office still has not replied to an email asking how and why he misstated the numbers about the decline in the number of Vermont dairy farms).

NON-WARNING: If anyone is really concerned about either voter fraud or voter intimidation in Vermont next Tuesday: stop. By all discernible evidence and all rational analysis, neither will occur. That the subject is even under discussion seems to be the result of various confusions plus perhaps a little opportunism.

Here’s what happened: A small item in Monday’s Burlington Free Press reported that  members of Vermont’s “Tea Party” movement (also known as the Green Mountain Patriots) would hold a “poll watching training session” in Rutland Wednesday evening.\

The next day, Democratic Secretary of State candidate Jim Condos pounced, suggesting that the Tea Partiers were planning voter “intimidation,” and claiming that his Republican opponent, Jason Gibbs, was associated with the Tea Partiers “and other national groups that are planning to interfere with the voting process.”

In reply, Vermont Tea Party coordinator Jon Wallace of West Rutland, in a telephone interview Thursday, called Condos “shameless” and “disgusting,” as he insisted that “poll watching is part of the responsibility we have as citizens,” and that the Tea Party “wants every eligible voter to cast a ballot.”

Maybe everybody should calm down. First of all, in Vermont, the Tea Party represents a small if not quite insignificant minority which couldn’t intimidate more than a handful of voters if it wanted to. Second, there is no reason to suspect that it wants to. Condos may have been making much out of little as he saw an opportunity to link Gibbs with the Tea Partiers.

But considering the national context (to which he referred) Condos didn’t make much out of nothing. This is all part of the continuing debate between Republicans who suspect voter fraud and Democrats who claim Republicans are using “ballot security” concerns to try to scare minority (meaning mostly Democratic) voters away from the polls.

The Democrats have by far the better case. There is almost no voter fraud in America, and more than a tinge of racism in the allegations of it, most of which focus on minority polling places. Most of the few federal convictions over the last decade or so have been technical or individual (somebody voting in another town to vote for his brother-in-law; or maybe to vote against his brother-in-law). Large-scale voting fraud would make no sense. It would too complicated, too expensive, too easy to get caught. In fact, today’s only credible vote fraud accusations – fake absentee ballots cast in a Troy, N.Y., city election – make the case. There were – if the allegations are true – all of 36 fraudulent ballots cast.

(Even history’s most celebrated voter fraud, Richard J. Daley’s Democratic organization supposedly stealing votes for John F. Kennedy in Chicago in1960, may never have happened. It’s the stuff of legend, but there’s no convincing evidence demonstrating that any votes were stolen).

On the other hand, there is real evidence of attempted – and sometimes successful – intimidation of black and Hispanic voters at the polls. Armed private guards at polling places in Newark; leaflets falsely warning prospective voters that they’d be checked for unpaid traffic tickets or utility bills at the polls in Baltimore; false information about when and where to vote in Cleveland.

But that’s never happened in Vermont, where Democrats are neither as identifiable nor as easily intimidated.  Besides, Wallace is so open about what the Tea Partiers intend that he emailed a copy of the instruction sheet passed out to the potential Tea Party poll watchers. It essentially tells them to obey the law and not be disruptive.

Not that Wallace has any evidence of voter fraud in Vermont. He said he had heard from “college kids that some students they know boast that they vote several times.” That doesn’t really qualify as evidence.

Vigilance is always in order, and there’s nothing wrong with politically involved folks being on the lookout for intimidation or fraud. In this state, neither is likely, and whoever wins Tuesday will almost surely win fair and square.

UPDATE: The News Guy did not get to Woodstock yesterday for the evidentiary hearing in the case of Galloway versus Town of Hartford (scroll down to Wednesday’s post). Allen Gilbert of the Vermont chapter of the American Civil Liberties Union reported that Judge Katherine Hayes indicated she would rule in a week or two in journalist Anne Galloway’s request for official records relating to the seizure of a man in his own home last May. The ACLU is supporting Galloway,

Note One: An Apology– Thanks to the storms of Tuesday evening, the News Guy kept getting disconnected from the Internet. In the rush to finish writing, and to get the post into the system before the connection broke again, confusion prevailed more than it usually does. As some readers noticed, the post got posted twice. As at least one reader noticed, the first reference to the town of Hartford called it “Hartland,” another town entirely, if not that far away. Apologies to all readers and to the residents of both towns.

Note Two: The Next Two Weeks–As previously announced, the News Guy is going to take some time off. Admittedly, not the best timing, what with the primary on August 24, only a little more than two weeks away. But even primaries have to take a back seat to family events and school vacation periods.

So there will be no posts next Monday or Wednesday. There will be one on Friday, and it will be an in-depth analysis of the economic policy proposals of the five Democratic candidates for governor, one of which is not scheduled to be released until next week. (Republican candidate Brian Dubie has said he will release his after the primary).

There will also be no posts the following Monday and Wednesday (August 16 and 18), but there will be one on Friday, the 20^th, after which the regular Monday-Wednesday-Friday schedule will resume.

Note Three: A Clarification– Chris Roy, one of the two Republican candidates for Secretary of State, took issue with the News Guy’s assessment in last Friday’s post, Getting Tetchy, that he “seems to be losing” the primary race to Jason Gibbs.

Roy may have a point. He agreed that Gibbs has more money in the bank,(though Roy who has been running far longer, has raised more overall), has the support of Gov. Jim Douglas, and has been more successful in getting his name into the news.

But, Roy said, in what is likely to be a very low turnout, his “targeted” campaign, based on “a very focused mailing program and very focused phone call program” could propel him to victory.

So it could. At any rate, he provides a worthwhile reminder. Much attention has been paid to the likely Democratic primary turnout, with estimates ranging as low as 40,000. But at least the Democrats have a real race for governor, the highest-profile position. On the GOP side, though, nobody is challenging Dubie or U.S. Senate candidate Len Britton (whose prospects against Sen. Patrick Leahy are bleak anyway). Yes, there is a three-way contest for the U.S. House seat. But it is among three little-known long shots against Rep. Peter Welch, and therefore not likely to arouse much enthusiasm among rank and file Republicans. The Republican primary turnout could be really anemic.

Note Four: An Assessment– Speaking of the Democratic primary, has anyone noticed that it is one of the weirdest political campaigns in recent years, and not just in Vermont?

That’s because of what has happened in the race: nothing. Usually, in political campaigns, the process creates its own dynamic. Either Candidate A makes a fool of him/her-self, or Candidate B gets accused of some misdeed or peccadillo, or Candidate C makes a magnificent speech that captivates 5,000 cheering supporters in an arena, or some bizarre event not directly connected to the campaign plays to some candidate’s strength, or….well, or something.

If nothing else, in a close race the candidates start attacking each other. Or at least the candidates who are behind in the polls start attacking the front-runner. Rarely do these attacks enlighten, but they often get folks more interested.

Not here, at least not yet, and there’s not much time left. This race is about where it was when it began. It pits five honorable, responsible and not very exciting mainstream Democrats battling each other for the biggest share of the primary pie. Not one of them has stumbled. Not one of them has really caught on.

As to attacking, it isn’t certain that any of them knows how. Or, perhaps more likely, all are reluctant to start attacks because they know the attacker would be hurt as much as the attackee.

Just from the political perspective, the major recent development was Peter Shumlin’s decision to start television ads last month. The ads are pretty good, but as far as can be determined (not very far, there being no public polls) they haven’t much changed the structure of the race. Maybe, it being midsummer, voter are simply not paying enough attention.

All this is good news for Deb Markowitz, who started as the best-known, best-liked of the contenders, and seems not to have lost a step. True, as a candidate Markowitz is not exciting. But she’s likeable, and the other four haven’t inspired the voters to mobilize behind their banners, either.

Note Five: A Critique—The good news that came out of the Associated Press’s interviews with all six candidates about how, if elected, they would deal with next year’s likely budget shortfall, is that one candidate had a very specific idea which would clearly save money, and the candidate knew how much money the idea would save.

The bad news is that it would save only $16,000.

The idea was Markowitz’s pledge not to accept the $61 per diem allotment for the governor’s meals. She said the governor of Vermont earns enough to pay for her own meals.

From other candidates, the responses ranged between imprecise and arguably inaccurate. Bartlett said Vermont could save money by bringing home some of the prisoners it now sends to out-of-state facilities, though one reason the state sends prisoners elsewhere is that it’s cheaper. Shumlin said the state could save as much as $50 million by more closely policing some $250 million of outside consulting work, which might cut costs as much as 15 percent.

But 15 percent of $250 million is $37.5 million, not $50 million.

Then there was the candidate who, asked how he would reduce the budget gap, proposed increasing it.

That was Dubie, who told the AP he would make the budget easier to balance by cutting taxes.

“A gradual reduction in taxes will put more money in the hands of hardworking Vermonters,” Dubie said.

Yes, it will. And with more money in their hands, Vermonters (including the ones who don’t work all that hard) will pay more in taxes. But not enough more to offset the revenue loss the tax cuts will create. Whether cutting taxes is a good idea is debatable. That it will reduce revenue and therefore make the budget gap bigger, not smaller, is not. It will.

Not-so-petty squabbling

The original plan for today was a post dealing with a substantive, significant, and complex policy matter.

Too complex, as it turned out, to deal with in the time available. So in the interest of both precision and fairness, it will have to wait until next week.

Meanwhile, let’s have some fun with politics, because, with less than a month to go until Primary Day, a few of the candidates are starting to get a little tetchy.

Or at least to pretend to be getting a little tetchy. As a campaign reaches its final days, candidates have to find some way to distinguish themselves from their opponents. Often, that means finding some reason – or ostensible  reason—to criticize said opponents, or at least to make some news.

Perhaps surprisingly, this testiness has not really been evident in the race that dominates the scene right now – the Democratic primary for governor, in which the five candidates so far are being gentle with one another.

So far.

Oh, there was that little dustup between Peter Shumlin and Matt Dunne. After Shumlin bragged that he was “the only candidate in this race who has sponsored a single payer health care bill,” Dunne noted that  “in the 1993-1994 Legislative Session, House Bill 0763 titled, ‘Vermont Health Security Plan/Single-Payer Health Plan’ was co-sponsored by several House Members including Matt Dunne.”

Shumlin conceded defeat (well, he conceded error), and the two shook hands in front of the State House and they all lived happily ever after, at least until they can find something else about which to quarrel.

As squabbles go, this was both bland and minor. Perhaps more significantly, it was also irrelevant to the actual world and the actual state both men want to govern. According to Pubic Law 111-152, officially the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010, commonly known as the Health Care Law, states may not adopt significantly different health care financing systems until at least 2017.

Some Vermont Democrats insist that Congress might change this provision earlier. Congress will do no such thing, and a politician who refuses to acknowledge this reality risks disserving the voters.

Will one of the Democratic contenders be so bold as to publically acknowledge this?

Don’t bet on it.

But the real tetchiness has come in the two primaries for secretary of state, an office which may not be worth getting angry about. On the Democratic side, the flappette began when candidate Charles Merriman of Middlesex went on Mark Johnson’s WDEV-FM radio show and said, “I should have run as an independent… I thought about it and frankly I ran as a Democrat because I figured I had a better chance of winning than if I ran as an independent. If I get in, I’ll run as an independent next time.”

Horrors!

So, at least, proclaimed a few Democrats. Merriman’s opponent, former Chittenden County Senator Jim Condos, the apparent front-runner in the race, told Vermont Public Radio that the comment might reflect on Merriman’s “character, if you’re…using the party to benefit yourself.”

Merriman tried to wriggle out of the hole he’d dug by proclaiming himself a good, loyal, liberal, Democrat, but one who thinks the Secretary of State’s office ought to be non-partisan.

Not a bad point. Perhaps the Secretary of State’s office ought not even be elected. It is, after all, an administrative (as opposed to policy-setting) position. In neighboring New York, the Secretary of State has been an appointed position for decades, and it works just fine.

But if the Democratic candidates are having a little tiff, the Republicans are engaged in a cat-fight. The first blow was struck by the candidate who seems to be losing, attorney Chris Roy, who accused Jason Gibbs of exaggerating his accomplishments both in the private sector and as Commissioner of Forests and Parks.

“Inaccurate and misleading accusations,” shot back Gibbs, who has the endorsement of Gov. Jim Douglas, whose spokesman he was for several years. Gibbs also appears to have more money and a better-organized campaign.

Indeed, so confident does Gibbs seem to be that he has poked his snoot into the governor’s race, trying to help Republican Brian Dubie by attacking the incumbent Secretary of State, Deb Markowitz, one of the Democratic candidates for governor.

In a letter to Markowitz, Gibbs claimed that “insufficient effort has been made (by her office) to ensure that all (Vermont troops in Iraq and Afghanistan) are adequately notified” that the primary date has been moved up to August 24.

As evidence, Gibbs cited a tape of Gov. Douglas, on his recent trip to the war zone, discovering “that the Primary Election date being provided to troops there was still September 14.”

Yes, but while that is evidence of a mistake, the mistake was not made by Markowitz. It was made by the United States Armed Forces, which are, as those of us who have served in them are well aware, so mistake-prone that their employees over the years have created several inventive expressions for mistake-making which are too colorful to be repeated here.

Gibbs also criticized Markowitz because some of the ballots for early voting in the primary, which started July 12, were printed on paper that was the wrong size. The error, which was made by the paper company, was discovered and rectified (at the company’s expense) that day, and there have been no reports of anyone who wanted to vote being unable to do so on time.

Markowitz has been Secretary of State since 1998. Being mortal, she has no doubt made a few mistakes in that time. But if her opponents can’t come up with more troubling examples than these, she must have done quite a good job indeed.

There are 25 days to go. Prepare for more of the same, only pettier and tetchier.