But first, two items of news, the first one related to Monday’s post (scroll down) about how Vermont’s budget woes are similar to almost every other state’s.

So, it turns out, are its Unemployment Insurance Fund woes, according to a story in yesterday’s Washington Post. The insurance programs in 39 other states are roughly as broke as the one here, largely because “state programs were on average funded at only one-third the level they should have been, according to generally accepted funding guidelines,” in the view of one expert.

As with the budget crunch, this news does not render Vermont’s problem inconsequential or let our policy-makers off the hook. It does seem to mean that they were no more irresponsible than their counterparts in most other states.

The second item is a study concluding that at least 3,000 Vermonters – and probably 6,000 – escaped poverty, and the poverty of some 37,000 others was diminished, thanks to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA).

Take that conclusion with a smidgen of salt. It comes from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a liberal organization that wants to find good things to say about ARRA. But the Center has a reputation of playing it straight with numbers, and its methodology is there for all to see on its web site.

Now to the serious business of the day, which is only sort of a Vermont matter, but enough of one to justify examining it here, what with the prominent role played in recent days by former Gov. Howard Dean.

We’re talking health care, specifically the quarrel on the left side of the political spectrum over whether to support the much-compromised bill now (apparently) about to pass the U.S.Senate. It’s a worthy subject to discuss here because most Vermonters are at least mildly on that side of the spectrum. But they are not the only ones who might benefit from the conversation; there are lessons here for conservatives, too.

For those who have not been paying attention, Dean, the fiscally conservative governor of the nineties who has transformed himself into a lefter-than-thou agitator of the aughts, was for a while (he began to backtrack Sunday) a leader of the “bill-killer” faction on the left which judges the Senate bill worse than no change at all and urges its defeat, followed by the emergence of a better alternative next year.

As regular readers should know, it is the policy of this web site not to support or oppose legislation. From a liberal, a conservative, or any other perspective, good reasons to oppose any bill are easy to find.

But there are certain rules of political science and human behavior that should be taken into account. The first of these is that every public policy question should be answered through the prism of the Henny Youngman Hypothesis.

Derived from the Great Man’s second most famous line (after “Take my wife. Please!”), his response to the question, “How’s your wife?” The answer being, “compared to what?”

A good laugh in the nightclub, but perhaps a better lesson for the policy analyst. Because the way things actually work, at least in American government and politics, is that there are always two choices. In a free society, there can never be fewer than two. But in this free society, there are never more.

In every case, one choice is the status quo (the wife, in Youngmanian terms). The other choice is…the other choice. The “what” to which the status quo must be compared.

And what is that “what”?

Simple. It is whatever has emerged from the political/legislative/public relations process – the meat-grinder as some would put it – to challenge the status quo. That’s it. That’s the only other choice.

But wait a minute, comes the voice from Stage Left. What about a third choice? Where is the better “what,” the alternative to the status quo that would be even more different from the status quo than is this “what” that’s before us?

It does not exist. It never did. It never will.

The above is observation, not celebration. Now, and often in the past, advocates of greater change have complained that the “what,” the alternative that emerged from the meat-grinder, emerged thanks to chicanery, skullduggery, corruption, and decadence.

Could be. Doesn’t matter. What has emerged has emerged. What has not did not, and therefore does not exist. There are only two choices: the status quo, or the other thing.

That’s what James Madison and Thomas Jefferson knew in 1789 when many of their followers wanted to defeat the proposed new Constitution that had been sent to the states for ratification, and arrange for another convention, which would report out a better constitution.

No, said Madison (supported by Jefferson’s letters from Paris, which he wrote while pausing from his flirtations with a married woman), that’s not the way it works. The only choices are this proposed Constitution or the Articles of Confederation, which latter were not working very well. Let’s ratify this and then improve it, they said.

Which is what happened.

As to the opposite policy – waiting for a better “what” – that’s been tried, too, though not as successfully. In 1974, Sen. Edward Kennedy and top officials of President Richard Nixon’s Administration were close to agreement on a national health insurance system somewhat more sweeping than the one now before Congress.

Not good enough for liberals, led by officials of the AFL-CIO. They thought they’d get a better bill by waiting until after the 1974 elections gave them a “veto-proof” Congress. They’re still waiting.

(For details, check pages 217-219 of Edward M. Kennedy: A Biography, by Adam Clymer [William Morrow, 1999]. In a column in thedeailybeast.com Clymer convincingly argues that Kennedy would vote for this bill. The Senator’s widow, Reggie Kennedy, concurs in a column in Sunday’s Washington Post).

Yes, there can be a good reason to oppose the current health care bill: the conclusion that the system it would create is worse than the status quo. But that is a conclusion more easily reached by a conservative than by a liberal. According to most analyses (see, for example, this one) the major beneficiaries of the bill would be those in the low and lower-middle income brackets.

(And not the health insurance companies? Well, yeah, them, too.).

And remember, the sensible person will not casually dismiss the wisdom of Henny Youngman, not only in matters of political theory, but specifically on the subject of health care. Very few observations of the medical profession are more insightful than the account of the man who, when his psychiatrist told him he was crazy, insisted on a second opinion.

“Okay,” said the psychiatrist (according to Henny), “you’re ugly too.”