Ok, the Legislative session is over so it’s time to talk a little politics.

The news, in case you missed it in the Burlington Free Press Monday, is that former Gov. Phil Hoff endorsed State Sen. Doug Racine of Richmond  for governor next year.

Generally, an endorsement guarantees a candidate the vote of the endorser and (maybe) that of his or her spouse. Considering that Hoff hasn’t run statewide for more than 30 years and that  perhaps as much as half the likely Democratic electorate in next year’s primary has only the foggiest notion of who he is, a first reaction would hold that this case fits the general pattern.

But maybe not. Hoff, who became the first Democratic governor in more than a century in 1962, remains a hero to Vermont Democrats who can remember the 1960s. If nothing else, his endorsement gives the Racine campaign an early shot of gravitas.

Furthermore, in his column, Hoff said he wasn’t just issuing a statement, but would be “campaigning hard.” He said he and his wife, Joan, ” will visit different counties, meet with old friends and new, and have good conversations about the importance of this election and the importance of electing Racine.”

If Hoff, who is about to turn 85, is half the campaigner he was a few decades ago, he could help Racine.

Does this make Racine the early front-runner?

Not really

In the first place, it’s almost too early even to have an early front-runner. And then, getting a key endorsement or two is only one way for a candidate to be taken seriously. The other way is raise a lot of money, and here Secretary of State Deb Markowitz may be outstripping Racine.

“We have over 500 donors, some from every county in the state,” Markowitz said. “I’m expecting we’re going to have a (financial) report we’re really going to be proud of.”

Those campaign finance reports are due July 15, just about when the other semi-officially announced candidate, Sen. Susan Bartlett of Hyde Park, said she “will have a web site and all that stuff .” Bartlett, who only last week announced that she would run, said (on a voice mail message as she and the News Guy played telephone tag) she was still “talking with folks and getting the kitchen cabinet organized.”

Starting later is something of a disadvantage for Bartlett, especially because she’s the only candidate who hasn’t run statewide. Markowitz has held state office for almost 12 years, Racine ran for governor in 2002, and State Senate President Peter Shumlin, who has not ruled out running, lost to Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie that year.

But – again – there’s plenty of time, time enough for Bartlett, Shumlin, or even someone else to get into the race, get known, and get nominated.

One reason Markowitz is expected to raise a lot of money is that she has a long-term relationship with EMILY’s List, a Washington-based nationwide organization that raises money early in the campaign process (the name is an acronym for “Early Money is Like Yeast’” there is no Emily) for women candidates who are pro-choice on abortion.

As is Bartlett, but Markowitz noted that “EMILY’s list and I go way back ” and the organization is well-connected in Democratic fund-raising circles around the country.

Right now, at least until Bartlett really begins to raise money and campaign, the Democratic race is a one-on-one contest between Racine and Markowitz, with each trying to accentuate his or her strengths, while subtly (or perhaps not so subtly) pointing to the other one’s vulnerability.

The conventional wisdom is that Markowitz will “win” the first test, reporting more financial contributions than Racine on July 15. Getting and spending more money doesn’t necessarily win the race. But not raising enough usually means losing the race, and at any rate the political reporters will make much of the first financial reports because…well, because they are some indication of strength.

And they are numbers, meaning they are objective measurements.

But no one should be surprised if Racine ends up with enough money, even if not as much as Markowitz.

“I’m  focused on fundraising because I know that Deb has been working all winter on it,” Racine said. “It’s going well.”

Notice that neither candidate provided even a rough estimate of how much had been raised. Politics, as Jerry Bock and Sheldon Harnick once noted, is rather like poker, and the wise player does not reveal his or her hand.

(Who were those guys who once noted? A theatrical reference. A gold star for the first reader who sends a comment indentifying it correctly).

Needless to say, both candidates insist they are running less against each other than against Republican Gov. Jim Douglas.

“I believe Jim Douglas is politically weaker now than he was before (the Legislature overrode his budget veto),” said Racine. “Vermonters are looking at him differently, seeing someone who did not fulfill his responsibility, which is to find consensus.”

Markowitz agrees, saying that in her travels as Secretary of State, “what I hear is that more and more people are ready for a change. They want leadership in Montpelier.”

But what kind of leadership, what kind of consensus? Here the two candidates note the differences between them. Racine is painting himself as the strong, outspoken, Democrat whose views are well known.

Which, he not so subtly notes, can not be said of all the candidates.

“I know where I am and I know where Susan and Peter are, because we all have voting records. Deb has been in a position where she has not had to be involved in the policy issues the Legislature faces.”

Markowitz doesn’t really argue the point.

“I don’t have a voting record,” she said. “People don’t know where I stand. All they have to do is ask me.. They’ll find out.”

But she, too, gets in her digs, in her case without mentioning anyone by name.

“Vermonters …want the Governor and legislative leaders to have an honest dialogue and work out their differences,” she said in a recent campaign email.”The budget is not a political football to pass back and forth.”

A sideswipe at both Douglas and the Legislative Democrats, sending the message that those guys are all part of the system and implying that she, though a statewide official for more than a decade, is not. Markowitz is trying to paint herself as something of an outsider.

And while she doesn’t dwell on it, a younger outsider. Racine is 57, Markowitz ten years younger. Not that much younger, actually, but as it happens, exactly the age of another candidate who ran as something of an outsider (though he was a U.S. Senator), as well as the voice of a new generation. That candidate is now President of the United States, and not a bad example after which a Vermont contender could model herself.

One other difference has emerged between the two Democrats – their approach to that seemingly eternal (and some  would say infernal) conundrum facing Vermont Democrats – how to deal with the Progressive Party, and especially its leader ,Anthony Pollina, a once and perhaps future candidate for governor himself.

The differences are subtle, more nuance than polar opposition. But describing them will not only take a little time, but will also provide the opportunity to indulge in a short essay about the myths and realities of the Democratic-Progressive alliance/rivalry.

Tune in tomorrow.

Tags: Deb Markowitz, Doug Racine, Peter Shumlin, Susan Bartlett

This entry was posted on Wednesday, June 10th, 2009 at 12:15 am and is filed under Politics & Elections. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.