The Governor-Elect

NOTE: The last two days being essentially a blended blur, consider this an update on the post published this morning (scroll down) which itself was an update of the post published last midnight (scroll down farther).

Tomorrow, a Friday post as usual, which will be either the last or the next-to-last look at the election and its consequences.

So what will governmental/political life be like in Vermont with Peter Shumlin occupying the second floor corner office of the Capitol?

Different.

But maybe not all that different.

To understand how different, let’s start by assessing the Jim Douglas years, now coming to an end:

On the asset side: Eight years without scandal, and pretty much without turbulence. Douglas is not a rabble-rouser. Oh, he toyed with riling up the folks after that controversial sentencing of a sex offender, and then the awful murder of that young girl in Randolph. But he never felt comfortable doing it. Douglas is an even-keel kind of guy, a desirable quality in a governor. He kept the books balanced and the credit rating high. Unlike some current and recent governors of both parties, in states ranging from New York to Alaska, he did not embarrass his constituents.

On the debit side: For purposes of this discussion, we will glide over that little problem of coming down on the wrong side of the civil rights issue of the decade. Fortunately for Douglas, the Legislature overrode his veto of the marriage law. Otherwise, that’s how the world would have remembered him; this way, the veto will be only a footnote.

But that’s a one-of-a-kind issue, which does not help illustrate how things will be different under Shumlin. More to the point, under Douglas, Vermont spun its wheels for eight years. It isn’t that the governor did anything wrong; it’s that he didn’t do much.

Not the worst choice. Perhaps a governor who doesn’t try to do enough is better than one who tries to do too much. Meanwhile, though, opportunities are squandered, potentially productive paths never trod. Prudence is a virtue that can be overdone.

Judging from his campaign, Shumlin will be a far more adventuresome governor. He won’t just seize opportunities; he’ll try to create them, to explore new paths and try new plans in health care, energy, economic development, and more.

There is risk here, of course; politicians who plunge down paths never before trod are often forced to beat a hasty retreat with a face full of gorses. Shumlin is not a fool and probably knows this, but for now the point is not to assess the wisdom of his attitude, but simply to note it. For better and/or for worse, state government in Vermont will be more daring than it has been.

On most matters, of course, the new governor can only be as daring as the Legislature will allow. The big difference here will be that the new Governor is a Democrat, the party that will continue to dominate both houses of the Legislature.

Already Wednesday there were expressions of joy from Democrats and gloom from Republicans that the new governor could get the Legislature to accept whatever he proposed.

Maybe for a few weeks. The Legislature as a body has its own interests, ambitions, and fears. So do each of its members. Not a Republican, not a wise guy commentator, but a senior Democrat in the Legislature noted yesterday that at some point his branch of government would “begin to fight with the Governor.” It will almost surely happen, because it almost always does.

At that point, the otherwise irrelevant Republicans in the House and Senate might get some attention. Though a few races remain too close to call, the outlook as of Wednesday morning is that there might be two more Republicans in the House and one more in the Senate than there are now.

That will make the GOP delegation slightly more numerous but also more insignificant. For the last two years, the Republicans in the House comprised the nucleus of a possible veto-sustaining one third plus one. There weren’t quite 50 of them, but almost, and there was always the chance that they could attract an independent or even a maverick Democrat to uphold a Douglas veto.

On two celebrated occasions last year, they couldn’t manage that (though on one of them – the aforementioned marriage bill, several Republicans supported the override), but the possibility lent the GOP House minority a bit of oomph.

No longer. Even if Shumlin and the Democratic leaders of the Legislature have their differences, veto threats, much less actual vetoes, are most unlikely. Still, there will be enough Republicans (at least 48 in the House, seven or eight in the Senate) to engage in some deal-making under certain circumstances.

The weakness of the Republican Party in Vermont – in sharp contrast to its resurgence in so much of the country on Tuesday – deserves a closer look. Had Dubie won, his governorship might have offered some choice and opportunity to Republicans elsewhere. Not that Dubie was likely to be a presidential contender, but the election of a moderate Republican, even from a small state, might have provided a bit of ballast to an increasingly monochromatic party.

Tune in tomorrow for that closer look. But before leaving today, one more note:

Among the Democrats re-elected Tuesday was freshman Rep. Robert South of St. Johnsbury. Last year, when South voted to support the marriage bill override, the conventional wisdom in the Northeast Kingdom predicted he’d pay for the vote on election day.

He didn’t. In fact, the number of lawmakers defeated because they voted for same sex marriage, which was barely mentioned on the campaign trail, appears to be exactly zero. At least in this state, that argument is over.

This is still a holding action. This post “subs out,” as we used to say in the newspaper biz, the holding action posted last midnight. We will sub out again later in the day.

At 9 AM, the Governor’s race remains undecided. Peter Shumlin has a lead of about 3,700 votes with 96.3 “percentage of votes” reported.

That’s the description from the web site of WCAX-TV (Channel 3) which has been way ahead of the other vote counters since Tuesday evening. The assumption here is that “percentage of votes” actually means percentage of precincts, which is not the same thing.

If it’s really the percentage of votes, then perhaps 9,000 votes remain to be counted, and assuming that they are from small towns where Brian Dubie is strong, that could possibly be enough votes out for him to catch up.

But if only 10 or 15 precincts remain uncounted, each of them small towns with only a few hundred voters (or fewer), Shumlin seems likely to hang on.

Either way, there’s no point in discussing the results until the results are known. So for now, just a few points about the other races.

But check back later today; say about 4 O’clock-ish, for more analysis if we have a winner by then. Either way, there will be an extra News Guy posting tomorrow.

Like their fellow-citizens of the other 49 states, Vermonters like to think their state is different from all the others. One way in which Vermont does not differ from the other 49 is that it is not as different as it likes to think it is.

But on Tuesday Vermonters showed that they are uncommonly selective when it comes to politics. They seem to have elected a Democratic governor, which would make this the only state to replace a Republican governor with a Democrat this year. But they clearly chose a Republican for lieutenant governor.

Why? Well, maybe because some people had the idea that a Republican lieutenant governor would help balance a Democratic governor and two legislative houses dominated by Democrats (it won’t, but that doesn’t mean some folks didn’t think it might). But mostly because Phil Scott was simply a better candidate than Steve Howard, whose last-minute attacks on Scott did Howard no good, and perhaps some harm.

But then the voters switched back again and chose Democrat Jim Condos over Republican Jason Gibbs for Secretary of State. Condos had the advantage of being better known, but he also ran a better campaign.

Or, perhaps more accurately, Gibbs ran a worse one. He was energetic and hard-hitting, perhaps too hard-hitting for a young man (34) who should have taken greater pains not to look like a young man in a hurry. His late attacks on Condos also seem to have backfired.

Or maybe he lost the election on the night of September 17 when he ran his car off the road and didn’t report the accident until the next morning, raising suspicions (perhaps unfairly) that he’d been driving after having a drink or two.

On the other hand, perhaps getting caught driving after having a drink or two (or five) helped Republican Auditor Tom Salmon get re-elected. Not that what happened last November when Salmon got pulled over and ticketed for drunk driving was a political plus. But what happened last week – after a political foe went to court to get the police video tape of the incident released – may actually have helped Salmon defeat Democrat Doug Hoffer.

In the video, Salmon didn’t seem to be falling-down drunk. If anything, the release of the tape (to which Salmon did not object) seems to have made Salmon more appealing to many voters. John Franco, the lawyer who went to court to get the information released (a friend of Hoffer’s, but apparently acting on his own) obviously was right on the law, and should be applauded by all of us who favor more transparency in government. But if it was a political tactic, it seems to have backfired.

On the other hand, Salmon was better known from the start, and Hoffer, while a whiz at analyzing data, never seemed entirely comfortable as a candidate. Running for office is a craft; like all of them, it requires practice.

If you’re reading this early, come back later.

It is midnight, as late as some…uhhh, shall we just say, ‘veteran’ observers are willing to stay awake.

Maybe as late as they are able to stay awake.

According to the unofficial tally from WCAX-TV (which had far and away the best election night coverage in the state), Peter Shumlin is now ahead of Brian Dubie by 1,003 votes with almost a quarter of the precincts yet to report.

Shumlin said he was going to win. Could be, but the prudent observer will wait for some more precincts to report.

At this point, then, there is nothing to say. And while it is not a policy universally practiced in the journalism dodge, the preference here has always been that if there is nothing to say…don’t say anything.

So for you early birds, check back later. Maybe 10 AM.

And for all of you, there will be an extra posting tomorrow, Thursday.