Census Sense
Whoops!
Vermont is falling behind.
Just a few days ago, Vermonters were doing as well as Americans in general in filling out and returning their forms for the 2010 Census, indicating that they were as intelligent, knowledgeable and responsible as most of their fellow citizens.
Or, to take the ‘glass-is-half-empty perspective, as foolish, ill-informed and undependable.
Until yesterday, when according to the official Census Bureau web site (h), only 56 percent of the folks in the Green Mountain State had complied, significantly less than the 60 percent rate nationwide.
Significantly, but perhaps temporarily. The numbers are updated every day, so there’s time for Vermont to get back to par. For the moment, though, only Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Alaska are doing worse than Vermont. Alaska, with 48 percent, is the only state where the rate is under 50 percent.
The low rate is not a good sign for Vermont’s future or of Vermonters perspicacity. The ten-question form should take no more than ten minutes to complete, so it’s not exactly a major hardship. Not filling it out means a Census enumerator will have to visit the non-complier’s home, adding to the cost of the whole enterprise.
It’s true that one major consequence of the decennial census – Congressional reapportionment – is irrelevant to Vermont, which will get one representative in the House of Representatives no matter how many residents are uncounted. But the State Legislature gets reapportioned, too, and people who don’t get counted risk diminishing their town or county’s clout in Montpelier. In addition, more than $400 billion in federal aid – for education, transportation, housing, nutrition, and more – gets apportioned according to how many people the Census counts in each locality. The fewer folks counted in your neck of the woods, the fewer federal dollars it will get.
So Census non-compliance could raise local property taxes.
So far, many Vermonters have not complied because they have not yet received their Census forms. That’s because the Census Bureau does not send forms to people whose address is a post office box, which is lots of people in rural areas.
Bart Eton, a Bureau spokesman at the Boston regional office, said Census officials wanted “to make sure we have every questionnaire tied to the piece of ground the address is on.” P.O. box customers will get their forms hand-delivered to them sometime in May, Eton said.
But don’t think that this explains away Vermont’s poor compliance rate. That’s 56 percent of the questionnaires sent out, not of the total residents of the state (a number not precisely known; finding out is the point of the whole project).
As appears to be true in most states, participation in Vermont varies from place to place, with some possible correlation between compliance and income/education levels. So Chittenden County, with the state’s highest median income and college graduate rates, comes in on top with 63 percent compliance. Essex County, at the other end of the income/education spectrum, is last at 41 percent.
Franklin and Addison are the other counties scoring better than 60 percent. Lamoille and Orleans are under 50 percent. For the rest, or for any town, village, or zip code in the state, check them out yourself on the Bureau’s web site (see above). It’s kind of fun.
But some of the contrasts seem strange. Up in the Northeast Kingdom, for instance, Sutton scores a respectable 55 percent, while in nearby Newark a paltry 35 percent filled out their forms. Farther south in Corinth, 61 percent of those who received the questionnaires filled them out, while just to the west, only 49 percent of the people in the town of Washington complied.
What would the town’s namesake have thought? After all, he was there, presiding at the Constitutional Convention that ordered an “actual Enumeration (capital ‘E’ in the original) every ten years “in such manner as (Congress) shall by law direct.” That’s the U.S. Constitution, Article I, Section 3.
And what would Calvin Coolidge have thought had he known that in the town of his birth, Plymouth, a paltry 25 percent of those who got their Census forms have sent them back? He might even have spoken.
Granted, there is a slim possibility that some people might have deliberately decided not to fill out the form because…well, because a few radio or blog loudmouths have urged noncompliance because…well, perhaps because they have nothing better to do.
(OK, maybe there’s more to it than that. But you know what? Not every political pronouncement deserves to be taken seriously. On this web site, the standard is minimal rationality)
Slim possibility but no great likelihood. Bart Eton said Bureau officials had some concerns about an organized effort by some Hispanic leaders urging Latinos not to cooperate as a protest against Congress’s failure to change the immigration laws, and out of fears that officials would use Census information to track down illegal immigrants.
He was apparently referring to the Rev. Miguel A. Rivera, chairman of the Washington (D.C., not Orange County)-based National Coalition of Latino Clergy and Christian Leaders, who is campaigning against the Census. But in recent months other Hispanic leaders have organized support for the Census, and compliance in Hispanic areas seems to be running about as expected.
Only one member of Congress, Republican Michelle Bachman of Minnesota, has said she would not fill out her Census form, for reasons not entirely clear. Ironically, her Congressional district has one of the highest compliance rates in the country. So does Minnesota statewide, along with Wisconsin, Iowa, Indiana, and Nebraska.
Perhaps Alaska’s low score owes something to the anti-government mood in the state, which has a small – but politically noticeable, perhaps even politically consequential – secessionist movement, of which the husband of former Governor Sarah Palin was once a member.
Yeah, Vermont has a secessionist movement, too. But it is barely noticeable and not at all consequential. At any rate, there is no evidence that Vermont’s low compliance rate reflects a deliberate political decision on the part of any countable segment of the population.
It could be just a one-day blip and the numbers will improve tomorrow.
Or maybe 44 percent of the people here aren’t all that bright.
Tags: Census, George Washington, Michelle Bachman
