A somewhat discombobulated post this morning, following a day spent poking into state and federal fiscal matters, only to have the poking get overtaken by events.

The big event in Washington, as everyone knows, was passage by the House of Representatives of President Barack Obama’s “American Recovering and Reinvestment Act of 2009,” more generally known as the “stimulus plan.”

In Montpelier, with considerably less fanfare, the big event was the transmission of the final (for now) projection of  what that stimulus plan would mean for the state and its budget.

It meant that for the coming Fiscal Year (2010, starting July 1), things don’t look as bleak as they did. The projected shortfall, according to a draft analysis by the Joint Fiscal Office, is $33.4 million.

That’s a lot lower than the $252.8 million gap between revenue and expenses the state would face without the federal money. The information inspired WCAX-TV (Channel 3) to lead its 6 o’clock news with a story saying the federal money might “stave off budget cuts,” with Senate President Pro Tem Peter Shumlin saying, “This stimulus package is going to be a huge help to us.”

Well, yeah, but not for long. The Joint Fiscal Office analysis projects the budget crunch will bump right back up to $220.9 million in Fiscal Year 2011. The state is by no means free of having to choose between drastic cuts in services or higher taxes on at least some people.

But perhaps not right away. The Legislature does have a little breathing room, giving it some ammunition to use against Gov. Jim Douglas’s insistence on deep budget cuts, including the elimination of some 600 jobs.

In fact, when Shumlin said the federal money was going to be “a big help to us,” the “us” he had in mind might have been his fellow-Democrats vis a vis the Republican governor. With these new numbers, it might be a little tougher for Douglas to convince voters that all those cuts are needed right now, a little easier for Democrats to argue that at the very least the cuts can be phased in.

The schools, too, may have been given some political breathing room . The bill passed by the U.S. House (and the Senate, if anything, is likely to vote for more spending) includes almost $80 billion to be funneled directly to local school districts nationwide.

That includes $13 billion for Special Education. For years, Vermont schools have spent more on Special Education per pupil than most other states, partly because the state follows the “mainstreaming” approach the federal government has advocated since 1974, but never adequately funded. The new money could ease the burden on property taxes in many districts, in turn easing the pressure on school districts to cut other programs.

As though they had orchestrated the events, educators got another political gift Wednesday when the latest standardized test scores of the New England Common Assessment Program were released. The only conclusion that can be drawn from them is that the schools are doing a pretty good job.

More students were reading at or above the “standard.” And proficiency scores were up among all elementary school pupils tested. As has always been true in Vermont, and in the other 49 states, children from poor families did not do as well on the tests. Even here, though, the gap narrowed between those who qualify for the federal free or reduced-price meals and their classmates from higher-income families.

Coming just a little more than a month before Town Meeting and the votes on most school budgets, the news is likely to convince at least some voters, especially parents, that the schools are worth their cost.

The test scores, to be sure, do not demonstrate that all the children are mastering reading, writing, and arithmetic. But they’re not doing that in the other states, either, or, come to think of it, in other countries.

In fact, here’s a little secret that is so outrageous in some circles that we’re going to utter it very softly, hoping only a few of you will hear. But we’re going to go into some depth and demonstrate the truth of our secret sometime in the near future.

Ready?

Actually, American public schools in general are pretty good.

And it is possible-just possible, mind you-that the widespread sentiment to the contrary reflects the success of a well-financed, politically-inspired campaign to undermine their reputation and their effectiveness.

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Tags: Joint Fiscal Office, test scores

This entry was posted on Thursday, January 29th, 2009 at 6:00 am and is filed under Schools, Taxes. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.