Doug Racine is making nice with the Progs.

The others are not, at least not yet.

Will they? Will Susan call Anthony? Will Deb break bread with David? Will Peter get involved?

Waitaminit! Is this politics or a soap opera?

A little bit of both, now that you’ve asked. The above-named folks are politicians, leaders of the Democratic or Progressive Parties. Some of them are either running for governor, or are thinking about it. That’s the politics part.

The soap opera part is a little more complicated. Start with this premise, though both Democrats and Progressives will consider it  an insult: The two parties are divided less by policy than by petulance, the very pith of soap operas

In Dem v Prog disputes, what matters is less about where one stands on taxes, school spending, or wind power, than it is about who is (or, especially, is not) taking whom seriously, who insulted whom some time back, and which party is the real “spoiler,” a word some Democrats love to hurl at Progressives but all Progressives find offensive. Especially when it’s true, which is only sometimes.

That’s why the term “making nice” was used above to describe the overtures by Racine, a state senator from Richmond and one of three semi-official Democratic candidates for governor, to the  Progressive Party, and especially to Anthony Pollina, the Progressives real if unofficial leader .

It isn’t that Racine and Pollina didn’t talk about strategy and policy. No doubt they did, as did Racine when he spoke to a meeting of the Progressive State Committee last month, and when he shared a cup of coffee recently with Burlington Progressive Rep. David Zuckerman (the “David” in the example above). But considering the relationship between the two parties, the personal contact itself may have been more important than anything else. It sent the signal that Racine was taking the Progressives seriously. Not that being taken seriously is all that the Progs want. But it’s one of the things they want.

It’s also a bit of a risk for Racine. Some active Democrats don’t want to take the Progressives seriously. They want to grind them into the dirt. At a recent county Democratic meeting, some active Democrats wondered how the party could prevent Pollina from running as an independent or Progressive, as he has done three times in statewide races. They reportedly seemed incredulous when told that he had every right to run if he chose.

That could explain why the other Democratic contenders, Secretary of State Deborah Markowitz and Sen. Susan Bartlett of Hyde Park (the “Deb” and “Susan” above) have so far not reached out to the Progressives. It risks enraging some Democrats.

But then, ignoring the Progs enhances the likelihood that they will put up their own candidate for governor, splitting the left-of-center (or at least the left-of-right) vote, rendering it harder for anyone to beat Republican Gov. Jin Douglas. Indeed, it is a common catchphrase, almost a mantra, in both parties, that their major obstacle to success in beating Douglas has been their inability to unite behind one candidate.

Like so many mantras, this one is wrong, or at best minimally right. Just look at the history. In 2000, Pollina ran as a Progressive against Democratic incumbent Howard Dean and Republican Ruth Dwyer, splitting the liberal vote. Dean won anyway. In 2004 and 2006, the Democratic contenders were effectively fusion candidates who ran one-on-one against Douglas. They lost anyway. Last year, Pollina ran as an independent with Progressive backing, again splitting the liberal vote , this time with Democrat Gaye Symington. But it made no difference. Douglas got a majority.

Only in the 2002 contest for lieutenant governor, where Pollina siphoned enough votes from Peter Shumlin (the “Peter” above, who may yet get into this race) did the Progressive candidate “spoil” the race for the Democrats, as Republican Brian Dubie won a plurality victory.

One can go back and quibble with the political significance of some of those examples. Had Ruth Dwyer been a good candidate, for instance, Pollina might have cost Dean the governorship. Still, the basic message is clear. A really good Democratic candidate, who can get votes from the center of the ideological spectrum (even liberal Vermont has lots of middle-of-the-road voters) can get elected even if a Progressive runs. A bad candidate will get beat one-on-one.

Still, the Democratic candidate would clearly have a better chance if there were no Progressive contender in the race. Schmoozing with Progressives allows Racine to say to Democratic primary voters-‘pick me, because if I win there’s less likely to be a third candidate in the race.’

The down side is that it provides ammunition for a Republican attack on Racine as a captive of the left.

Not surprisingly, both Racine and Pollina use a more sober term than “making nice” to describe their conversations.

“I’m reaching out to the Progressives,” said Racine, who said Pollina is “engaged in conversations with me.,” and is “showing an interest” in Racine’s candidacy

“The conversation continues,” Racine said. “Where they go, I don’t know. I would appreciate his support. I think I’m someone who could heal that (Democratic-Progressive) division.”

Pollina said he would continue to meet with Racine and would be willing to meet with the other Democrats, too. But he hasn’t ruled our running again himself.

“I’m still thinking about it. Definitely,” he said.

It isn’t that Pollina can be dissuaded from running just by taking him to lunch, or that the Progressives can be persuaded not to run their own candidate simply by paying attention to them. Both Pollina and his party are committed to a set of policy positions, and there are some policy differences between the parties. During the recent state budget battles, for instance, the Progressives favored fewer budget cuts and slightly higher taxes than the Democratic leadership ended up accepting.

In reality, though the Democratic leaders didn’t disagree with the Progressives as much as they had to give some ground to their own more moderate members. The Progressives have the luxury of having no moderate members. That’s why they formed their own party to begin with, so they wouldn’t have to compromise with moderates.

Even Pollina acknowledged, though, that there weren’t many differences among the Democratic contenders.

“There are a lot of similarities among the candidates,” he said. “We have a handful of what might be considered left-of-center Democrats. The question is, what level of commitment do they really have to issues? It’s easy to say ,’I support universal health care.’ What does that mean?  Who’s going to be willing to follow through, to build a coalition strong enough to do more than defeat Jim Douglas, but also stand up against the other special interests that permeate our politics?”

And the way to answer that question, Pollina said, “is not a precise science. Part of it does come down to a gut feeling.”

Gut feelings, of course, even when they are about politics, are personal. They make for great soap operas.

Tags: Anthony Pollina, Doug Racine

This entry was posted on Thursday, June 11th, 2009 at 12:15 am and is filed under Politics & Elections. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.