On the surface, and for at least a level or two below it, Tom Salmon’s party switch is good news for the Vermont Republicans, bad news for the Democrats.

Three or four levels below? There’s where things get more complicated. However they turn out, though, the state should be glad that Salmon provides a handy opportunity to recognize some political realities that have been ignored.

Back to that in a minute. For now, let’s let Vermont Republicans, who so far have not had a very good year, enjoy their good day.

If nothing else, today there is one more Republican and one less Democrat in this state than there was yesterday.

But that’s the least of it. Sitting in front of their television sets or at their breakfast table with coffee and the morning paper, Mr. and Mrs. Swing Voter likely said to each other Tuesday eve and Wednesday morn: “Why that nice young man has gone from the Democrats to the Republicans. He must have a good reason.”

Better yet, the Tuesday evening/Wednesday morning local news cycle was dominated by Salmon proclaiming the message Republicans want the hear proclaimed: Beware them Demycrats; They gonna tax yo’ pants off.

OK, those were not the exact words the second-term Auditor of Accounts used, either in his announcement nor in answer to questions. But that was the gist of it, and it’s what the Republicans love to hear.

That’s why Republican State chairman Rob Roper quickly issued a statement arguing that, “the message is that we are the fiscally responsible party, and it’s really gratifying, with Auditor Salmon’s coming to the party, that that message has gotten through,”

Actually, all we know so far is that the message has gotten out. The ‘through’ part remains to be seen. But surely it doesn’t hurt to have a man elected as a Democrat, not to mention the son of a former Democratic governor, say he believes “the Vermont Republican Party is closest to accepting the reality of our times and is therefore the best equipped to manage the very real and troubled economic and social conditions which confront us, not only today, but in the coming decade.”

Yeah, he could use a better writer, but for now it’s the sentiment that counts. Seeking to keep the momentum going, Gov., Jim Douglas said that the Salmon switch proved that “the taxing and spending plans of legislative Democrats are out of touch,” and that the Democratic “supermajority has moved further to left.”

Just the point the Republicans have been trying to make all summer. This was just about the first time they’ve gotten it onto the front page.

Where it won’t stay for long, whereupon we come to the question of whether Salmon bought himself a day’s publicity in exchange for a lot of political trouble.

Consider. Until Tuesday, he was all but assured of re-election as auditor. He was the incumbent and a Democrat, pretty close to invincible in this state these days. Now he’s the incumbent and a Republican, who could get beat.

Who, one might even say, is likely to get beat if the Democrats can come up with a good candidate to oppose him. And do not doubt that Democratic State Chair Judy Bevan is lining up some likely contenders—men and women with business credentials, perhaps enough money to help finance the campaign, and political skills, maybe even a touch of charisma.

Under Bevans, who took over earlier this year, the Democrats are more aggressive.. For years, the Democratic leadership was very issue-oriented. It isn’t that Bevans doesn’t care about issues. But she cares a great deal about winning. Gone are the days when the Democrats would just sit back and let some ambitious, well-meaning, shlub enter their primaries unopposed. Salmon can expect a tough race for re-election.

Or in a Republican primary for governor should Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie opt not to run. With a lively Democratic primary for governor likely, only devoted Republicans will vote in the GOP primary. Devoted Republicans generally prefer…devoted Republicans, meaning Republicans who have been devoted to the party for years, not months.

But that’s not the only political lesson to be found in the penumbra of the Salmon switch, nor the only one that does not bode well for the newest Republican, who explained his action by saying, “the majority of Vermonters do not want to see tax increases as a response to poor planning.”

Assuredly they do not. But that isn’t what happened. In response to the Recession, the Democrats who control the Legislature did raise taxes, minimally. But they also cut spending, even spending on programs for the sick, the elderly, and the poor.

In doing so, they enraged some of their staunchest supporters, who wanted them to raise more taxes and cut little or nothing. just as the tax hikes enraged the staunchest Republicans, who wanted more spending cuts and no tax increases.

Nobody’s taken a poll recently, but a good bet would be that each of those “staunch” constituencies accounts for roughly 20 percent of the Vermont electorate (with the left fringe probably a bit larger than the right). As to the 60 percent in the middle, every indication so far is that they don’t have any problem with the budget the Legislature passed over Douglas’s veto last spring. In fact, what Vermont seems to have engaged in this year is a successful exercise in democracy, with the lawmakers ending up roughly where a majority of the people wanted to be: budget cuts but not too many; small tax increase on only a few.

How does anybody know that? Nobody does, not for sure. But so far, signs of a backlash against the budget (or, for that matter, same-sex marriage) have been all but non-existent. A few letters to the editor. An occasional op-ed page screed. There were those “tea party” demonstrations, but they were small, and directed mostly at Washington, not Montpelier.

Actually, it would be surprising if there were much of a backlash, because there has been no calamity. Predictions by Republicans (and Salmon) that the new budget would hurt the state’s economy have not come true. In fact, in this Recession, Vermont’s economy has done somewhat better than most other states. For political instability, the Republicans need economic instability.

They may yet get it, and it is possible that mass subterranean resentments smolder way down deep. Right now though, way down deep, maybe all the Vermont Republican Party got this week was one more voter.

Tags: Tom Salmon

This entry was posted on Wednesday, September 9th, 2009 at 12:15 am and is filed under Politics & Elections. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.